Eduardo Leite and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. represent two outsider candidacies separated by geography, electoral system, and political context. Leite, a former governor of Rio Grande do Sul, seeks Brazil's presidency in the 2026 election—a direct popular vote in a multiparty system dominated by left and right poles. RFK Jr. pursues the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in the United States, where he must win primary contests against established GOP figures and ideological rivals. While both candidates operate outside conventional party establishments, the structural differences between Brazil's presidential election and the U.S. primary nomination process create vastly different pathways to success. Leite must build a coalition across fragmented political space; RFK Jr. must convince Republican primary voters to overlook Trump's presence and his own controversial positions on vaccines and public health. The 0% on Leite and 1% on RFK Jr. reflect profound skepticism about each candidate's viability. For Leite, the zero probability likely reflects Brazil's concentrated electoral landscape, where sitting leaders and major party endorsements dominate. Leite's lower national profile adds to the headwind. For RFK Jr., the 1% acknowledgment may reflect Republican primary unpredictability, but it signals that most participants see him as unlikely to overcome establishment opposition, Trump's shadow, and voter concerns about his non-traditional background. Both prices suggest these are "longshot" markets priced near the floor. These electoral outcomes are largely independent. A Leite victory would depend on Brazilian economic performance and Lula government unpopularity. RFK Jr.'s success hinges on U.S. primary voter behavior and Trump's political trajectory. The races might diverge sharply: Brazil could see an outsider surge while the GOP nominates an establishment figure, or vice versa. However, if global populism strengthens in 2026-2028, both markets could move upward together, albeit from very low baselines. For Leite, monitor Brazil's inflation trajectory, unemployment rates, and Lula's favorability; polling for Leite; and whether other center-right candidates emerge. For RFK Jr., watch Republican primary turnout, Trump's political status, and major endorsements. Economic conditions in both countries could amplify outsider sentiment. Finally, institutional barriers (ballot-access, debate thresholds, delegate rules) may favor or hinder either candidate. Both markets remain speculative longshots, but unexpected shifts could move prices significantly.