In April 2026, prediction markets are tracking four interconnected potential agreements between the Trump administration and Iran. These markets represent distinct policy areas—uranium enrichment, transit fee negotiations through the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing of previously frozen Iranian assets, and oil sanctions relief—that collectively reflect potential shifts in U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations. While each market focuses on a specific outcome, they are grouped together because all four represent possible components of a comprehensive Iran policy revision that could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics and global energy markets. Understanding these markets requires attention to the underlying diplomatic signals, recent bilateral communications, and regional stability concerns that influence both individual probabilities and the likelihood these initiatives move in concert. Market prices across these four outcomes reflect the collective expectations of participants, who are balancing the potential economic benefits of sanctions relief against U.S. strategic concerns and the technical requirements for verifying nuclear compliance. The uranium enrichment agreement carries particular weight, as it touches on nonproliferation—the core concern driving Iran sanctions policy since 2018. Similarly, the Strait of Hormuz transit fees represent a tangible economic dimension: Iran controls one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, through which roughly one-third of global maritime oil trade passes. Those monitoring these markets should watch for several signals: official statements from both administrations regarding negotiation timelines, intermediate agreement frameworks emerging from lower-level talks, and changes in oil and geopolitical risk premiums that suggest market expectations are shifting. The interdependence among these four markets means that movement in one—such as asset unfreezing—may signal broader momentum toward a comprehensive settlement or, conversely, a breakdown in talks affecting all four. These markets ultimately serve as a real-time barometer of collective judgment about whether diplomatic thaw is gaining traction.