Iran's potential closure of its airspace represents a consequential geopolitical development with implications for global energy trade, aviation security, and regional stability. These three linked prediction markets provide real-time snapshots of how traders and analysts assess the likelihood and timeline of such an event across different May dates. By tracking whether Iran closes its airspace by May 18, May 21, and May 31, market participants gain a granular view of confidence shifts as new information emerges and circumstances evolve. The three markets are grouped together because they represent a nested timeline—each earlier deadline is mathematically contained within the later ones, yet the pricing spread between dates reveals critical information about when the market expects decision points or trigger events to occur. If May 18 probabilities are low while May 31 shows higher confidence, traders may believe the critical juncture falls later in the month. A sharp rise across all three dates, conversely, signals a sudden shift in perceived near-term risk. When examining real-time prices, observe how these markets move independently and in tandem. Significant probability shifts often correspond to specific news events, diplomatic statements, or escalating tensions that participants believe influence the timeline. The order book depth and bid-ask spreads tell an important story too—tighter spreads and deeper liquidity suggest higher conviction in the underlying probabilities, while wide spreads may indicate genuine disagreement or lower trading interest. By monitoring all three markets simultaneously, you can assess not just the probability of closure, but the consensus view on when such a decision would most likely occur, offering valuable context for understanding how markets are pricing in this evolving geopolitical situation.