The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a central focus of global attention, with ceasefire negotiations carrying major implications for European stability, energy security, and humanitarian outcomes. These prediction markets aggregate forecasts for when a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement might occur across four distinct timeline windows in 2026: May 31, June 30, October 31, and December 31. By comparing probability estimates across these dates, readers gain insight into market participants' collective expectations about the timing and likelihood of diplomatic progress. Higher probabilities in earlier windows suggest confidence in near-term breakthroughs, whereas steeper declines toward later dates reflect expectations of extended conflict and prolonged negotiations. These forecasts incorporate assessments across multiple dimensions: current diplomatic activity, military developments on the ground, international pressure and involvement, economic incentives and constraints, and potential leadership changes in Ukraine, Russia, and key allied nations. When interpreting these markets, keep in mind that earlier deadlines naturally carry lower baseline probabilities—more time increases the eventual likelihood of agreement. The probability spread between adjacent dates is particularly informative: wide gaps suggest substantial uncertainty about exactly when resolution might occur, while narrow gaps indicate market confidence in a compressed timeframe for negotiations. Together, these markets provide a continuous, data-driven snapshot of how informed participants assess the conflict's likely trajectory and the feasibility of negotiated settlement within each quarter of 2026.