On May 21, Figure AI will conduct a significant test of its F.03 humanoid robots, with the robotics company aiming for ambitious package delivery milestones at a logistics facility. These three prediction markets track whether the F.03 units will achieve three distinct package-handling thresholds by 10:00 PM that day: 200,000 packages, 225,000 packages, and 250,000 packages. The markets are grouped together because they measure escalating performance levels of the same underlying event, creating a structured ladder that collectively reveals market expectations about realistic robot performance. By reading across the three outcomes, observers can discern important nuances in how confident market participants are about each target. If the price for the 200,000-package outcome trades significantly higher than the 225,000-package outcome, it signals the community views the lower threshold as substantially more achievable. Prices hovering close together across all three thresholds, meanwhile, suggest that market participants see the targets as comparably likely to be met. The relative odds also incorporate execution risk—logistics operations involve complex variables including robot uptime, coordination challenges, power management, and other operational factors that could influence final delivery numbers. These markets therefore function as a real-time gauge of how technologically feasible and operationally realistic each performance target appears to informed market participants. Whether you're monitoring Figure's progress in automation, interested in how prediction markets price technological milestones, or curious about the near-term trajectory of robotics in logistics, these three interconnected markets provide granular visibility into market expectations around one of the year's most closely watched robotics demonstrations.