Tokyo Temperature Forecast — May 18 | Polymarket Trade

Tokyo's weather on May 18 is the subject of three linked prediction markets that collectively reveal how traders forecast the city's maximum temperature that day. Rather than a single broad market, the prediction space is fractured into three specific outcomes: 18°C or below, exactly 19°C, and exactly 20°C. By grouping these markets together, you can observe how participants collectively assess different precise temperature ranges and where consensus clusters within this narrow but meaningful window. As you review the prices displayed below, note which temperature outcome the market assigns the highest probability—this reflects the collective expectation for how warm May 18 will be in Tokyo. Pay attention to the logical relationships between markets as well: adjacent temperature points should maintain coherent price ratios that prevent arbitrage, and when they do, you're witnessing efficient market pricing at work. These three markets combine to create a detailed probability landscape, showing not just what the market expects overall, but precisely how much confidence participants attribute to each specific temperature outcome. Whether your interest focuses on weather prediction, market microstructure, or how prediction markets handle real-world forecasting, this event page provides transparent data on participant expectations. The markets update continuously as new information emerges and as May 18 approaches, allowing participants to monitor how changing weather signals and forecasts shift trading behavior and probability assessments across all three outcomes.