The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded annually since 1901, recognizes individuals and organizations advancing peace, reducing military conflict, and fostering international cooperation. The 2026 award is shaping up to be particularly competitive, with influential candidates spanning politics, diplomacy, and humanitarian work. These prediction markets track real-time probability assessments as traders monitor geopolitical developments, diplomatic breakthroughs, conflict resolutions, and policy announcements throughout the year. By observing price movements across different candidates—from heads of state like Narendra Modi and political figures such as Donald Trump, to international organizations like the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees and emerging diplomatic voices like Ahmed al-Sharaa—you can discern which contenders are gaining or losing momentum. The market prices reflect active analysis of each candidate's demonstrated contributions to global peace and their precedent within Nobel's historical selections. Prices typically experience significant shifts in response to major international developments: ceasefire agreements, humanitarian initiatives, diplomatic summits, and conflict escalations all influence how traders reassess each candidate's likelihood. These markets function as a crowdsourced measurement of geopolitical expectations, revealing which individuals and organizations are widely viewed as most instrumental to global peace efforts in the coming year. Whether you follow international relations closely or simply want to understand which figures and institutions are being recognized for peace-building work, these markets provide transparency into real-time assessments of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize race.