Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (95% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1566.67 (+1567%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability6.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: risingLiquidity: CLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice stable for 86 days
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$130
Liquidity$35K
Current Probability6%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
245 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets14
AI Brief
An upper bound of 2.75% by year-end sits at 6% probability, a notch higher than the 3.0% scenario but still showing the market expects rates to stay in the mid-range. This reflects a consensus view of one or two modest cuts through late 2026 rather than aggressive easing.