The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is set within a range, with an upper bound determining the maximum rate. This market questions whether that upper bound will remain at 2.75% through the end of 2026. The Fed regularly adjusts its target rate range based on inflation trends, labor market conditions, and overall economic outlook. Currently, at 2% odds, the market is pricing in a very low probability that the Fed will maintain the upper bound at exactly 2.75% by December 9, 2026. This reflects widespread expectations among traders and analysts that the Fed may adjust rates significantly in the coming months. Higher odds for alternative scenarios suggest markets expect the Fed will either raise the upper bound to higher levels if inflation remains elevated, or lower it if economic growth slows. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials and incoming economic data typically influence these market prices. The probability implied by odds changes as new inflation reports, employment data, and Fed communications emerge. Resolution depends on the Fed's official target rate range announcement on or before December 9, 2026.