Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 40% YES. Momentum is falling. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$150.00 (+150%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability40.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: -3.2%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CInformed flowPrice forming
- Price dropped -3.2pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$137
Liquidity$20K
Current Probability40%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 3.1% → 2.1%
245 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets14
AI Brief
The market prices a 29% chance the Fed will hold rates at 3.75% or lower by end-2026, with 71% betting on higher rates driven by inflation concerns or Trump administration pressure for tighter policy. FOMC meetings and inflation data over the coming months are the key catalysts that will shape the Fed's forward guidance trajectory.