The Federal Reserve's policy rate is a cornerstone economic indicator that influences borrowing costs, inflation expectations, and employment across the broader economy. The federal funds rate operates as a target range, with both a lower and upper bound that the central bank sets through its policy decisions. At the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve had established the upper bound at approximately 4.33%. This prediction market asks whether the Fed will lower this target to an upper bound of 3.75% by December 2026, representing a 58 basis point reduction from current levels—a meaningful but measured easing scenario. This market is resolvable through the Federal Reserve's official policy announcements and decisions through December 2026. Economic data including inflation trends, employment growth, and labor market conditions will be key factors influencing the Fed's policy path. The current 30% YES odds suggest market participants assess roughly a one-in-three probability that the Fed will reach a 3.75% upper bound by year-end 2026, with the 70% NO odds reflecting expectations for either more aggressive rate cuts or a more cautious approach to easing. Shifts in economic data—particularly weakening growth or persistent inflation—could meaningfully change these probability assessments as we approach the end of 2026.