Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans YES at 84%. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$19.05 (+19%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability84.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.5%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice stable for 26 days
- Price moved -0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$93K
Liquidity$106K
Current Probability84%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.4% → 1.1%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets4
AI Brief
Market is pricing 85% probability that Iran-Israel/US conflict ends by December 31, 2026, signaling strong trader belief in either diplomatic resolution or status quo cessation over 8+ months; the 2% daily gain reflects cautious optimism on Trump administration diplomacy.