Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 43% YES. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$132.56 (+133%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability43.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -2.5%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: CInformed flowPrice stable for 7 days
- Price dropped -2.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$18K
Liquidity$34K
Current Probability43%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
AI Brief
Pete Hegseth's 37% exit probability reflects ongoing tension between his controversial background and Trump administration support, with the nearest catalyst being congressional scrutiny and performance under pressure. The 24-hour decline of -9.5% suggests market skepticism about removal despite recent headlines, pricing in that Trump is likely to retain him through 2026.