Pete Hegseth currently serves as Secretary of Defense under the Trump administration, having been appointed in early 2025. This prediction market tracks whether he will remain in the position through the end of 2026 or depart before December 31, 2026. At current odds of 41% for YES (departure), the market reflects a substantial but minority-weighted probability of his removal or resignation by year-end. Cabinet departures can occur through multiple pathways: policy disagreements with leadership, political pressure from Congress or media, personal circumstances, or broader administration reshuffling. The resolution is binary and verifiable: if Hegseth holds the office on December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO; if anyone else occupies the Secretary of Defense position, it resolves YES. The 41% odds suggest the market community believes his continued tenure is more probable than not, yet acknowledges material political and institutional risk. Hegseth's record as a public figure and military background have generated ongoing media attention and political debate, factors that influence market sentiment on his longevity in the role.