Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (90% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$900.00 (+900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability10.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: ALarge Trader Flow: ActiveMature market (256d)
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$359K
Liquidity$536K
Current Probability10%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
268 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
China's Taiwan invasion odds at 10% reflect persistent but low geopolitical risk; markets price in U.S. military deterrence, economic costs, and diplomatic channels. Key drivers include Chinese military readiness and Taiwan political stability. End-2026 deadline creates a real-time catalyst window.