The possibility of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026 represents a major geopolitical uncertainty. Taiwan's contested political status, claimed by mainland China but governed independently, creates ongoing tensions that surface periodically in military and diplomatic incidents. The prediction market currently prices invasion risk at 9% for this 9-month window, indicating traders assess the probability as low but material. Market participants monitor military capability assessments, diplomatic signals from Beijing and Taipei, economic interdependence factors, and statements from international stakeholders. For resolution, markets define invasion as formal military operations crossing the Taiwan Strait with territorial objectives. At 9% odds, the market reflects expectations that deterrence mechanisms—including Taiwan's defensive capabilities, international strategic interests, and the economic costs of escalation—meaningfully constrain the likelihood of invasion in this timeframe. Trading volume in geopolitical risk markets typically spikes during regional incidents or announcements affecting cross-strait relations. The market structure allows participants to express probabilistic views on whether diplomatic channels, military posturing, or other developments could shift invasion probabilities before year-end.