About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 77% NO. Momentum is falling. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$316.67 (+317%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability24.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: -3.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: ALarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price dropped -3.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$228K
Liquidity$413K
Current Probability24%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 6.3% → 3.4%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Iranian regime collapse by year-end 2026 shows substantially higher odds at 27% versus the April deadline, capturing market belief that internal instability or external pressure could accumulate over 9 months despite present stability. The 1% overnight decline suggests risk-off sentiment on regime-change narratives.