This market tracks the question of whether Iran's government will experience regime collapse before the end of 2026. Currently priced at 19% probability for YES, the market reflects participants' assessment that while such an outcome is possible, traders view it as unlikely in the near term. Iran faces longstanding internal tensions and external pressures from sanctions, regional conflicts, and domestic political dynamics. The market resolves by December 31, 2026, based on whether the Islamic Republic experiences a fundamental change in government authority or loss of state institutional control. The 19% price level suggests a low but meaningful probability as assessed by active traders. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East region and shifts in international policy may influence price discovery as the market remains active with $328K in liquidity, allowing participants to trade on different views of Iran's political stability.