About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 90% NO. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$900.00 (+900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability10.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +1.1%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +1.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$31K
Liquidity$78K
Current Probability10%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 5.2% → 3.0%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets1
AI Brief
US NATO withdrawal by end of 2026 is priced at 10% (up 1.3%), triple the odds for April 30 deadline; 9 months allows more time for Trump policy shifts, congressional action, or alliance fractures, but still reflects strong market skepticism that formal withdrawal occurs.