The US commitment to NATO has been a cornerstone of transatlantic security since the alliance's founding in 1949. Recently, questions about the continuity of American involvement have emerged due to shifting political priorities and debates over burden-sharing among alliance members. This prediction market examines whether the United States will formally withdraw from NATO before January 1, 2027. For withdrawal to occur, an act of Congress would typically be required, along with compliance with the NATO treaty's withdrawal provisions, which include a one-year notification period. The current market odds of 12% for a YES outcome reflect low near-term probability, though elevated geopolitical tensions and domestic political shifts have maintained some trader conviction around this scenario. Historical precedent for major alliance exits is limited, and withdrawal would represent a significant shift in US foreign policy architecture. Market participants are pricing in current legislative intent, executive policy direction, and the practical timeline required for formal withdrawal procedures.