Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 37% YES. Momentum is strong up. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$170.27 (+170%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability37.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +3.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowMature market (146d)
- Price jumped +3.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved up to 34.3% from 33.4% baseline — 2% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$8K
Liquidity$28K
Current Probability37%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.7% → 1.6%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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Anomalies
WarningPricez=3.1