The global temperature record has been consistently broken over the past decade, with 2023 setting the previous all-time high for measured global mean temperature. The question of whether 2026 will surpass this benchmark depends on complex factors including solar activity, ocean surface temperatures, and natural weather patterns. Currently trading at 36% YES odds, the market reflects moderate expectations—suggesting that while another record year is possible, many traders view it as less likely than not. This probability accounts for the natural variability in Earth's climate system and the fact that consecutive record-breaking years remain relatively rare even in a warming climate trend. The market price implies roughly one-in-three odds of 2026 becoming the warmest year measured since instrumental records began in the mid-1800s. Traders have adjusted odds throughout the period as new climate data and seasonal temperature reports emerge, with overall sentiment suggesting cautious skepticism about immediate record-breaking but acknowledging the continued upward temperature trajectory observed globally. Resolution will depend on official global temperature measurements announced by major climate institutions at year-end 2026.