Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Iranian regime collapse remains a distant bet even with Middle East tensions: only 13% probability and declining, reflecting market skepticism that a full regime change is achievable within two months despite geopolitical pressure from Israel. Raimondo's 2028 presidential hopes are essentially priced out at 1%, signaling the market views her as far behind other Democratic candidates in the crowded primary field. Na Kyung-won's Seoul mayoral bid is dead on arrival at 0% probability with the election six weeks away, indicating the market has no conviction in her candidacy. Iran leadership change by May 31 is slightly more probable than full regime collapse at 16%, but still highly skeptical that a transition occurs within four weeks despite succession speculation around Mojtaba Khamenei. Tarcisio de Freitas has zero traction in the 2026 Brazilian presidential race, with the market pricing him out entirely as he trails other candidates heading into October elections. Renan Santos gets modest 7% odds in the 2026 Brazilian presidential race, positioning him as a long-shot alternative to the dominant frontrunners in the same October election. Elon Musk posting 200-219 tweets in a single week is priced at just 9%, indicating the market expects either lower activity or a different range that better matches his historical tweeting patterns. The 280-299 tweet bucket for Musk in the same week jumps to 16% probability, suggesting traders view this mid-range as more plausible than the 200-219 bracket. Tulsi Gabbard's 2028 presidential hopes are priced at 1%, reflecting near-certainty that she won't win the general election as a third-party or long-shot candidate. Pete Hegseth's tenure as Secretary of Defense has a meaningful 34% removal probability by year-end, making this the highest-conviction political bet on the list and likely driven by questions about his military background and nominations hearing performance. Jon Ossoff winning the 2028 presidency is a token 4% bet, signaling virtually no market conviction despite his status as a Georgia senator. Marjorie Taylor Greene's 2028 Republican nomination bid is priced at 1%, with the market viewing her as having minimal path to party leadership despite her high profile. Elon Musk posting 340-359 tweets in a week falls to just 2%, suggesting the market views this high volume as improbable given his typical activity levels. Xi Jinping meeting Taiwan's Cheng Li-wun by June 30 is priced at a dominant 98%, signaling near-certainty that some form of high-level dialogue will occur within three months amid China-Taiwan tensions. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's odds for the 2027 French presidential election stand at 7%, positioning him as a long-shot candidate within a year of the contest. Mesías Guevara's Peruvian presidential bid is completely written off at 0% with the election days away, reflecting market confidence that other candidates dominate the April 12 race.