The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a critical chokepoint connecting the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean, handling approximately 12 percent of global maritime trade annually. Since late 2023, Houthi-affiliated forces have conducted sustained attacks on commercial shipping in the region, raising global concerns about potential closure or severe disruption. This market examines whether these security disruptions will escalate to a complete effective closure of the strait by April 30, 2026. An effective closure would mean sustained blockade preventing the majority of commercial traffic for a continuous period. Currently trading at 7 percent YES odds, the market reflects trader assessment that full closure by the deadline remains unlikely, suggesting confidence in either eventual de-escalation or a shift to localized disruptions without complete blockade. The low conviction also reflects uncertainty in defining what constitutes an effective closure. Since inception, odds have remained relatively modest, fluctuating between 5 and 12 percent as shipping incidents and diplomatic statements emerge. The April 30, 2026 deadline is externally verifiable through maritime authority data, port activity reports, and shipping insurance metrics, making resolution objective and transparent.