Ebola case in the US by June 30 has 30% market-implied probability, with $7K 24h volume and resolution June 30. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
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The prediction market currently prices an Ebola case in the United States by June 30, 2026, at 30% probability, reflecting trader assessment of import risk given existing global disease surveillance and US border health screening. Ebola outbreaks remain endemic to parts of West Africa, with sporadic cases in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo in recent years. The US has imported very few cases historically—primarily during the 2014–2015 West African outbreak—and benefits from stringent airport health screening, trained healthcare providers, and rapid isolation protocols. The 30% odds suggest traders view a US case within the next 29 days as unlikely but not implausible, likely accounting for travel-related transmission risk, potential laboratory incidents, or an undetected early outbreak abroad. Current pricing reflects a baseline of low risk tempered by acknowledgment that disease detection depends on both pathogen presence and diagnostic capacity.
Ebola virus disease remains a rare but high-consequence pathogen in global public health. West and Central African nations, particularly Guinea, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, experience periodic outbreaks; the 2014–2015 West African epidemic infected over 28,000 people and killed more than 11,000. The United States maintains robust disease surveillance infrastructure, including the CDC Emergency Operations Center, state epidemiologists, and hospital infection control protocols refined over decades. Historical precedent shows US-imported cases are exceedingly rare: the 2014–2015 outbreak resulted in exactly four confirmed US cases, two of them healthcare workers exposed during treatment in West Africa, and one a returning traveler. Subsequent cases have been extremely rare, a testament to effective screening and containment. Modern air-travel health questionnaires, vector surveillance at major US hubs, and international coordination have further reduced import probability. However, traders pricing this market at 30% acknowledge residual risks: a new large outbreak in West Africa within 29 days could seed international travel chains; rare lab incidents at research facilities remain theoretically possible; and diagnosis delays in a returning traveler with atypical presentation could occur. The 30% probability also reflects market-wide uncertainty—outbreak dynamics are inherently unpredictable, and trader conviction on the no-case side may not be absolute. The relatively modest 24-hour volume ($7K) and low liquidity ($16.7K) indicate this is a specialized rare-event instrument where information asymmetry and tail-risk pricing are more pronounced than mainstream markets.
The market resolves YES if a confirmed Ebola case is detected in the United States by June 30, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC. It resolves NO if no such case is confirmed by that deadline.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.