Prediction market on whether the Insurrection Act will be invoked by April 30, 2026. Current YES odds: 1%. Trading live with $20K liquidity.
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The Insurrection Act of 1807 grants the U.S. president authority to deploy military or National Guard forces domestically to suppress rebellion or invasion, bypassing normal state command structures. Invocation would be an extraordinary constitutional event, requiring circumstances that most traders currently assess as extremely unlikely to materialize. The market resolves YES if the president formally invokes the Act on or before April 30, 2026. Current pricing at 1% implies that traders assign near-zero probability to such an event within this timeframe, reflecting widespread skepticism that conditions would deteriorate to that threshold. The persistent low odds across recent trading cycles suggest the market views the baseline scenario as domestic crisis escalation that remains below the legal and political thresholds for military invocation through April. Price discovery remains somewhat thin, with $20K in liquidity supporting modest positions, so significant catalysts could drive rapid repricing.
The Insurrection Act has a complex historical record, last invoked in 1992 during the Los Angeles riots under President George H.W. Bush, when federal troops were deployed to restore order after civil unrest. Before that, invocations were more frequent but still rare, tied to major crises like the Civil War, Reconstruction, and early civil rights era deployments. Modern jurisprudence suggests an extremely high bar: the act targets rebellion or invasion, not routine political disagreement or electoral disputes. To reach invocation within the next few months, the political landscape would need to deteriorate far beyond current polarization—scenarios could include widespread violent insurgency, an attempted coordinated coup, or multi-state breakdown of democratic processes that local and state authorities cannot contain with conventional law enforcement. What could drive YES: Escalation of political violence to a scale requiring federal military response, constitutional breakdown that makes normal civilian law enforcement mechanisms inadequate, or a specific insurrectionary event that clearly meets the act's statutory definitions. The tags reference Minnesota fraud and Trump, suggesting speculation around post-election turmoil or fraud allegations potentially triggering domestic crisis, though current conditions remain within the bounds of normal political contention. What would drive NO: The most likely path remains that political disputes resolve through established constitutional channels—courts, elections, legislative processes—as they have consistently throughout American history. Traders appear to assume that even intense polarization falls short of invocation thresholds. Democratic institutions remain functional at federal and state levels, military leadership historically resists politicization, and invoking the act would signal institutional collapse rather than solving a manageable crisis. The 1% price reflects a genuine black swan scenario—not assigned zero probability, but low enough that traders demand 99-to-1 odds. Historical precedent shows invocation happens during systemic crisis like civil war, reconstruction, or major race riots, not routine political tension or electoral disputes. Recent political escalation has not moved the needle above 2%, indicating trader consensus that current conditions, while contentious, fall far short of requiring military domestic deployment. Significant odds movement would likely require specific catalysts: coordinated violence, an actual insurrection attempt, or explicit pre-positioning of military assets.
The market resolves YES if the U.S. President formally invokes the Insurrection Act on or before April 30, 2026. Resolution is binary based on official invocation status, determined by public record and presidential proclamation.
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