Iran's political leadership—specifically its Supreme Leader and presidential positions—remains a focal point of geopolitical attention. This market tracks whether a formal leadership change will occur by April 30, 2026. With the market expiring in just 13 days from today, this represents a very near-term resolution window requiring either succession of a senior religious leader or an unexpected constitutional process. At 5% YES odds, traders assess minimal probability of leadership transition within this timeframe. Iran's succession mechanisms typically follow scheduled cycles or extraordinary circumstances, neither of which is anticipated before month-end. The 5% implied probability reflects tail-risk scenarios—unexpected health developments, constitutional actions, or extraordinary political events that fall outside normal processes. The market's $85,000+ daily volume and $160,000 liquidity indicate active trader participation in geopolitical event markets. Odds have remained stable near 5% throughout recent sessions, suggesting strong consensus that April's remaining days offer low likelihood of formal leadership change. Traders monitor official announcements, regional news flows, and constitutional indicators for any signals of succession or transition.