The Iran-Israel conflict remains a central geopolitical concern as of April 2026, with acute tensions between Iran and Israel as well as potential U.S. military involvement shaping regional dynamics. This prediction market asks whether direct military hostilities involving Iran and Israel, or Iran and the United States, will fully end by May 15, 2026—less than a month away from the current date. The market resolves based on the absence of significant military escalation or major conflict events during this period. At 93% YES, traders are pricing in a high probability of no major conflict outbreak in the coming weeks, reflecting current diplomatic posturing and ongoing de-escalation efforts, though Middle East dynamics remain inherently volatile and subject to rapid shifts. This short-term window means that traders have limited runway to assess potential triggers; the current pricing suggests strong confidence in maintaining the status quo without military escalation. The market maintains substantial liquidity at $174,380, indicating robust trader participation and conviction. Recent trading volume of $38,076 in the past 24 hours shows ongoing active interest in regional stability predictions. The strong YES conviction likely reflects both the brief timeframe remaining and the perceived absence of immediate military catalysts.