Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 33% YES.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$203.03 (+203%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability33.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +1.5%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +1.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$40K
Liquidity$95K
Current Probability33%
Resolves in1mo
Low VolatilityVol: 3.4% → 2.3%
37 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution by May 15 is at 33% (up 3%), reflecting cautious optimism over the next 5 weeks; however, this deadline is much tighter than the December 31 market (33% YES), suggesting traders expect either early escalation or a longer conflict arc.