Kevin Warsh was nominated by President Trump as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position in 2026. This market tracks whether his nomination will be formally withdrawn before May 15, 2026. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and investment banker, has faced scrutiny from Senate Democrats over his regulatory philosophy and past policy statements on interest rates and financial regulation. The current market odds of 1% YES reflect traders' assessment that withdrawal is highly unlikely given current political dynamics. Market participants evaluate the probability based on Senate confirmation dynamics, potential policy conflicts with Democrats, congressional opposition, scandals, or voluntary withdrawal by Warsh. The extremely low odds suggest the market believes Warsh will either advance to confirmation or remain as an active nominee through the market deadline. The market resolves YES only if the nomination is formally withdrawn by any party before the May 15, 2026 expiration date, and NO if it remains active, is confirmed, or expires without withdrawal.