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The market prices the probability of a major meteor strike (10+ kilotons) hitting Earth in 2026 at 16%, reflecting trader assessment of relatively low impact risk this year. Earth is continuously monitored by NASA, ESA, and other space agencies tracking near-Earth objects (NEOs), and such large strikes are extraordinarily rare—occurring roughly once every few thousand years on average. The 16% odds suggest traders view 2026 as a baseline year for geological risk, with most probability weighted toward no strike. Any credible detection of a significant incoming asteroid would immediately shift market prices upward. The current odds reflect scientific consensus on baseline asteroid impact frequency rather than any specific threat currently identified by astronomical systems. Recent advances in detection technology have substantially reduced the chance of a surprise large impact going unnoticed.
What factors could move this market?
The 10-kiloton threshold represents a significant regional hazard without civilization-level consequences. For scale, the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia—estimated at 10–15 megatons—flattened 80 million trees across 2,200 square kilometers. A 10-kiloton strike would cause severe damage if striking populated areas but poses minimal existential risk. The probability of any given year experiencing such an impact depends on the current NEO inventory and detection capability. NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office catalogs thousands of near-Earth objects and continuously discovers new ones. The 2022 Dart mission demonstrated humanity's ability to deflect asteroid trajectories, a factor some traders incorporate into their conviction regarding impact prevention. The 16% market price embeds several assumptions. First, traders believe current detection systems are sufficiently comprehensive that a 10+ kiloton object on collision course would likely be identified. Second, the geological baseline risk of roughly 1 in 60,000 per year for 10kt+ impacts translates to approximately 1.6% statistical probability, implying the market prices in an uncertainty premium above pure baseline. Third, modest liquidity ($8,800) and daily volume ($650) indicate niche trader participation focused on space physics and tail-risk scenarios. YES-side traders emphasize detection system incompleteness, the vast inventory of undiscovered small asteroids, and the possibility of sudden identification of inbound objects. The cone of uncertainty around new detections can span weeks, creating potential for dramatic market repricing if a threatening object is found mid-year. NO-side traders highlight impact rarity, improving detection technology, and continuous monitoring by multiple independent space agencies. Any 2026 impact would represent a statistical anomaly without current warning indicators in the astronomical community. The market will likely remain stable absent new detections, but volatility could spike sharply with discovery of a potentially hazardous object.
What are traders watching for?
NASA and ESA release updated NEO inventories in 2026; any newly detected 10kt+ potential impactor triggers market repricing.
Planetary Defense Office and space agencies issue threat assessments throughout year; new indicators could swing trading odds sharply.
Continued asteroid tracking operations by independent networks and satellites monitor for approaching hazardous objects in real-time.
Year-end confirmation via satellite, radar, and observational data determines whether impact occurred and resolves market.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if a confirmed impact of 10+ kilotons occurs anywhere on Earth before 2026-12-31 00:00:00 UTC. Resolution is determined by verified data from NASA, ESA, and independent astronomical networks confirming impact occurrence and yield magnitude.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
