The Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, triggering one of the largest military conflicts in modern Europe. Throughout 2024 and 2025, various ceasefire proposals and peace negotiations have emerged at different points, though sustained conflict has continued. This market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will establish and maintain a formal ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026—a timeframe that extends approximately two years from the market creation. A ceasefire would represent a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics and would require agreement from both parties on military withdrawal, territorial arrangements, or other negotiated terms. At current odds of 30%, market participants assess a relatively low probability of a ceasefire materializing within this timeframe, reflecting expectations that negotiations may remain protracted or stalled. The 24-hour volume of $163,912 and available liquidity of $454,604 indicate moderate trading activity around this outcome. Market pricing can shift rapidly in response to diplomatic developments, military advances, or international mediation efforts. Resolution will be determined by credible reports of a formal ceasefire agreement between Russian and Ukrainian authorities that achieves effective cessation of major hostilities by December 31, 2026.