Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 76% NO. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$316.67 (+317%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability24.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.5%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: AInformed flowMature market (257d)
- Price moved -0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$71K
Liquidity$764K
Current Probability24%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
The market prices a 24% chance of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end 2026, suggesting skepticism about rapid de-escalation despite Trump administration peace overtures and negotiation signals. Entrenched military positions and Ukrainian resistance continue to constrain leverage on both sides. Catalyst: Trump administration diplomatic breakthroughs or major battlefield developments through mid-2026.