Sam Bankman-Fried founded FTX and was arrested in November 2022 following the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange. He faced trial on multiple counts including wire fraud and conspiracy, with conviction likely. The market asks whether SBF will be released from custody—meaning not incarcerated—at any point during calendar year 2026. The current trading price of 5% YES odds indicates that traders assess a very low probability of his release within this timeframe. The odds trajectory has remained subdued since the market opened, reflecting the general legal consensus that conviction is likely to result in substantial prison time. Resolution requires confirming his custody status on the final day of 2026; any period of incarceration during the year, even if temporary, would resolve NO. This market captures expectations around appellate outcomes, pardon possibilities (which remain unlikely given the severity of charges), and timing of sentencing or potential early release programs. The current 5% price suggests traders assign minimal likelihood to any of these scenarios occurring by year-end.