The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately one-third of global seaborne oil transits daily. Recent geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about transit disruptions, and this market asks whether shipping traffic will return to normal levels by May 31, 2026. Normal traffic is measured by vessel throughput, transit times, and maritime insurance costs compared to pre-disruption baselines. The market trades at 87% YES odds, reflecting high trader confidence in normalization. This pricing suggests participants expect either diplomatic resolution of tensions, shifts in trade policy to stabilize conditions, or existing transit protocols to prove resilient. The current odds imply traders assess the probability of major disruptions within the five-month timeframe as relatively low. Resolution relies on objective maritime data: vessel throughput from tracking services, transit time records, and insurance premium comparisons. The sustained 87% price level indicates steady trader conviction in normalization, though final weeks could see volatility if geopolitical developments change expected outcomes.