Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 44% YES. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$127.27 (+127%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability44.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +6.0%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +6.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$34K
Liquidity$49K
Current Probability44%
Resolves in1mo
Low VolatilityVol: 8.8% → 4.4%
53 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
AI Brief
The market assigns just 35% probability to Strait of Hormuz shipping normalization by end of May 2026, indicating skepticism that Iranian tensions and regional instability will fully resolve within two months. Trump administration negotiations and sanctions policy remain key variables. Catalyst: monthly shipping data, geopolitical developments, and Trump administration Iran policy announcements.