Trump Out Before 2027: 12% Probability — Live Odds

The prediction market prices Trump's removal or departure from office before 2027 at just 12%, reflecting strong market consensus that continuity is far more likely. Removal could occur through multiple mechanisms: a second impeachment conviction (requiring two-thirds Senate majority), 25th Amendment invocation citing medical or constitutional grounds, voluntary resignation, or other unforeseen circumstances. The 12% price acknowledges these tail-risk scenarios while assigning them low historical probability. Sitting U.S. presidents rarely leave office mid-term; no president has ever been convicted and removed via impeachment. The market's $253K liquidity and $53K daily volume suggest active participation in both continuation (NO) and disruption (YES) scenarios. Trading patterns indicate sophisticated participants view removal as highly unlikely given current political conditions. The Dec 31, 2026 resolution window spans approximately seven months, providing ample time for major constitutional or political developments should circumstances shift dramatically.

What factors could move this market?

U.S. presidential removal or mid-term departure is exceptionally rare in modern political history, providing crucial context for the 12% market price. No sitting president has been successfully removed via impeachment—Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton survived Senate votes, and Richard Nixon resigned before facing certain conviction in 1974. The current institutional environment suggests removal faces steep structural barriers. Trump commands Republican congressional majorities; any impeachment conviction requires two-thirds Senate support, a threshold nearly impossible to reach on party-line votes. The 25th Amendment pathway requires vice-presidential and cabinet consensus, similarly unlikely absent catastrophic circumstances. Theoretical scenarios that could push markets toward YES center on acute health crises, unprecedented legal jeopardy, or dramatic shifts in political dynamics. An octogenarian president faces inherent health risks; any significant medical event could trigger constitutional discussions. Alternatively, unforeseen legal developments, extreme personal conduct, or catastrophic loss of party support could theoretically create removal pressure. The market prices these possibilities at 12%, treating them as non-trivial but statistically improbable. The NO case dominates based on current observable conditions. Republican supermajorities mathematically block impeachment conviction. No public health concerns have emerged requiring 25th Amendment consideration. Resignation remains purely volitional and appears politically unacceptable under current circumstances. Public messaging from Trump and his allies consistently indicates continuation through 2028, not early departure. The 88% NO price reflects trader confidence in these baseline conditions persisting through year-end 2026. The bid-ask spread and substantial market depth suggest institutional conviction in the NO outcome. Large sophisticated players likely maintain long NO positions, having assessed removal risk as vanishingly small relative to historical norms. If major uncertainty emerged—serious health events, unexpected legal crises, or dramatic party fractures—the market would likely reprice significantly, potentially with sharp volume spikes. Current calm pricing reflects trader belief that removal remains a genuine tail risk rather than a material near-term possibility.

What are traders watching for?

• Congressional or Republican Party political fractures that could shift impeachment or constitutional convention calculus before year-end
• Major health events or medical disclosures affecting Trump's fitness or willingness to continue serving
• Unexpected legal or constitutional developments with existential political implications for the presidency
• International or domestic crises that could destabilize Trump's political position or force resignation

How does this market resolve?

Market resolves YES if Trump ceases to be U.S. President before Dec 31, 2026 via resignation, removal via impeachment conviction, 25th Amendment invocation, or other means. Resolves NO if he remains in office through that date.