Will Donald Trump be out of office as US President by April 30, 2026? Current YES odds: 0%. Trade on this political prediction market.
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This market tracks whether Donald Trump will be out of office as US President by April 30, 2026—marking the final four days of April with just hours remaining to deadline. Resolution is binary and unambiguous: Trump must have formally exited the presidency through resignation, impeachment with Senate conviction, or death, with confirmation required by 00:00 UTC on May 1, 2026. The current 0% price reflects trader consensus that Trump remains in office through this deadline, with virtually no probability assigned to removal within the compressed timeframe. No resignation has been announced, no active impeachment proceedings exist, and no immediate health crises have been reported. The zero price is rational given the political and constitutional reality: removing a sitting president requires extended legislative processes that cannot be compressed into a four-day window under normal procedures. This ultra-short-duration market effectively measures whether traders believe any extraordinary development—scandal, health emergency, or voluntary departure—could occur in these final days. The market serves as a real-time indicator of political stability expectations during this narrow window, with the zero odds signaling confidence in continuity of current leadership.
The constitutional path to presidential removal involves impeachment by the House of Representatives (simple majority) followed by conviction in the Senate (two-thirds supermajority on charges). Historically, this process has been extraordinarily rare and structurally lengthy. Andrew Johnson faced trial in 1868 but survived conviction by one Senate vote; the process took months. Bill Clinton's impeachment and acquittal in 1999 consumed months of investigation, floor debate, and Senate trial before any resolution. Richard Nixon resigned preemptively in 1974 after months of mounting investigative pressure and political erosion, but no president in modern history has been forcibly removed through impeachment conviction alone. The procedural requirements are substantial and time-intensive: articles of impeachment must be drafted, debated in committee, voted on the full House floor, then transmitted to the Senate for trial proceedings, which include opening arguments, witness examination or testimony waivers, closing arguments, and roll-call votes. This process typically consumes weeks to months even when strong political consensus exists for removal. April 30 is four days away, an interval that would require virtually all normal legislative processes to be circumvented or compressed beyond any historical precedent. Trump's current political position includes substantial support within his party's congressional caucus and significant backing from Republican leadership, making a surprise removal drive politically improbable. Even if a major scandal broke today, the compressed timeline would render impossible the legislative assembly, debate, and Senate trial required for conviction. The 0% odds traders are assigning reflects clear-eyed realism about constitutional mechanics: removal is fundamentally not a rapid process, and no credible signal suggests it is currently underway. The market implicitly rejects scenarios in which resignation occurs without advance warning or where health emergency forces immediate power transfer. Historical precedent and current political alignment both reinforce continuity as the overwhelmingly likely outcome. This market represents an edge case—most presidential markets span months or years, permitting gradual political shifts to move probabilities. The four-day window makes this almost purely a referendum on baseline expectations: will Trump remain in office unchanged? The zero price is a trader statement that no removal catalyst is anticipated, priced as probable, or credibly imminent, reflecting the structural weight of incumbent status, party alignment, and constitutional resistance to rapid transition.
Market resolves YES if Donald Trump is formally out of office as US President by April 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC via resignation, impeachment and Senate conviction, or death. Any other outcome resolves NO.
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