Strait of Hormuz: 5% market-implied probability of 20-ship single-day transit by May 31, with $23K 24h volume. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20-25% of global crude oil trade and remains one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints. This market specifically asks whether a single day will witness 20 or more commercial ship transits through the strait by May 31, 2026. At just 5% implied probability, traders currently expect daily traffic to remain below this threshold through the deadline. The low odds reflect expectations of relatively stable shipping patterns despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. US-Iran relations, particularly under Trump-administration policies, introduce considerable uncertainty to Middle East shipping routes and sanctions regimes. However, the market's pricing suggests traders believe either regional conditions will remain stable enough to prevent spike days, or that any temporary disruptions from escalations will not sustain high-volume traffic days above 20 vessels. Historical baseline transits through Hormuz typically range 15-20 per day, making 20+ a notable threshold event.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, serving as the world's most critical oil transit point with roughly one-quarter of global maritime oil trade passing through daily. Daily traffic through the strait typically ranges from 15 to 20 vessels, though this fluctuates based on global oil demand, refinery schedules, geopolitical conditions, and OPEC production decisions. A single day reaching 20+ transits would represent a notable surge—either a temporary spike in demand or a compression of multiple days' shipments into one period due to scheduling changes, port delays, or supply disruptions forcing accelerated routing. What could drive YES (higher transits): A sudden surge in global oil demand, major refinery restarts after maintenance, or coordinated production cuts that prompt increased shipments to meet demand. Oil price spikes or supply concerns could incentivize routing more tankers through Hormuz faster to lock in prices. Sanctions relief on Iranian oil could permit higher regional throughput. Alternatively, a temporary bottleneck or port congestion in the Gulf could cause operators to rush multiple vessels through in one day to clear backlogs. Escalating US-Iran tensions could paradoxically accelerate shipments if traders fear future restrictions and want to front-load exports. What could drive NO (stable traffic): Entrenched sanctions or diplomatic de-escalation keeping Iran's oil offline keeps total regional throughput lower and more manageable. Weak or moderate global oil demand maintains normal baseline transits. Efficient scheduling and port operations spread traffic evenly across days rather than creating concentrated spike days. A stable Trump-Iran policy posture without major new sanctions changes preserves the status quo. Cost pressures and climate shifts reducing oil consumption could further suppress traffic surges. Historical context: In periods of peak regional tension (2019 tanker attacks, 2020 Soleimani aftermath), daily transits remained below 20 even under acute stress. The 5% odds align with this history—20+ transits in a single day is a statistically rare event. Traders are pricing in low probability of a major disruption or demand shock by May 31. What 5% odds imply: The market reflects high conviction that this threshold is unlikely. This could indicate traders expect sanctions to remain binding, oil demand to stay moderate, or regional diplomacy to hold steady. A sharp repricing upward to 15-20% would signal expectations of sanctions relief, demand recovery, or escalating tensions spurring accelerated shipments. A further drop below 5% would indicate even deeper conviction in shipping stability and low oil volatility.
Market resolves YES if any single calendar day from now through May 31, 2026 sees 20 or more commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Resolves NO if daily transits remain at 19 or fewer through the deadline.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.