The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20–30% of global maritime oil trade on typical days, making it one of the world's most strategically important shipping chokepoints. This market asks whether any single day through April 30, 2026, will see at least 40 transits. Resolution depends on tracking daily vessel counts from official maritime monitors, making it straightforward and data-driven. Currently priced at 36% YES odds, the market signals participants believe a 40-ship day is below-even likely, suggesting either that historical daily averages run lower or that geopolitical risk—particularly US-Iran tensions under the Trump administration—is adding uncertainty to regional shipping patterns. The 36% price also reflects the specificity of the threshold: while the Strait is busy, hitting exactly 40+ on any given day is not trivial. Transit volumes fluctuate due to seasonal demand, sanctions compliance, and supply chain optimization. Recent months have seen elevated attention to Iran sanctions and shipping route diversification, both of which could shift traffic patterns. The relatively muted odds imply traders expect either typical day counts stay below the mark or that any surge in activity remains unlikely given current geopolitical constraints.