The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which approximately one-fifth of global crude oil passes daily. The strait is a focal point for geopolitical tensions, particularly given the Trump administration's renewed focus on Iran policy and ongoing sanctions regimes. Daily ship transits vary widely based on global oil demand, refinery scheduling, and geopolitical risk appetite. This market asks whether a single day will see 80 or more vessels transiting the strait by April 30, 2026. The resolution depends on publicly available maritime traffic data from sources like the Energy Information Administration, AIS tracking services, and shipping databases that maintain daily transit counts. A YES resolution requires one day to cross the 80-ship threshold; an isolated high-traffic day is historically plausible given seasonal demand spikes and shipping scheduling patterns. The current 52% odds suggest participants view this as roughly balanced—neither unusually likely nor improbable. This reflects uncertainty about geopolitical escalation, oil market dynamics, and seasonal shipping patterns. Recent months have shown moderate daily averages around 70–75 transits; reaching 80 in a single day would signal either demand surge or supply-route consolidation. The market expires April 30, giving four weeks for shipping conditions to evolve.