Bitcoin's price action during May 11-17, 2026 determines this prediction market's outcome, which asks whether the world's largest cryptocurrency could reach the $94,000 threshold. With the resolution window nearly complete and settlement set for May 18, current market odds at 0% for YES reflect strong trader consensus that Bitcoin has not reached this price level during the specified period. The $94,000 target represented a significant upside move from recent Bitcoin price ranges, and the extreme odds positioning indicates minimal expectations for a dramatic rally in the final hours before resolution. This market captures trader conviction about Bitcoin's near-term price ceiling. On-chain analysts and technical traders use such precision price targets to gauge market psychology and trader expectations around key resistance levels. The market resolves based on the highest Bitcoin price recorded on major exchanges during the May 11-17 window.
What factors could move this market?
Bitcoin's price trajectory through 2026 has been marked by volatility and competing macro forces, making specific price targets like $94,000 valuable reference points for traders. The May 11-17 window coincides with a period where Bitcoin has faced resistance from broader macro headwinds, including geopolitical uncertainty and Federal Reserve policy considerations that influence risk-on appetite for cryptocurrencies. The $94,000 level, approximately 20-30% above Bitcoin's recent trading ranges, would require a significant fundamental catalyst—such as major institutional adoption announcements, breakthrough regulatory clarity, or positive macroeconomic surprises—to achieve within a single week. Conversely, factors pushing against this outcome have been more persistent: Bitcoin has faced repeated resistance at lower technical levels, cryptocurrency market sentiment indices show cautious positioning rather than euphoria, and alternative investment narratives around equities and fixed income have competed for capital flows. The 0% odds tell a stark story about trader conviction: nearly zero probability is assigned to Bitcoin reaching $94,000 by May 17. Historically, when prediction markets display such extreme odds, they reflect either price action that has moved decisively away from the target or remaining time too short for the necessary price move. The tight liquidity on this market ($24,052 total) suggests it operates primarily as a sentiment gauge, making the unanimous bear positioning even more striking. Traders holding YES positions at 0% odds are making a tail-risk bet that Bitcoin could reverse sharply in final hours—a possibility increasingly remote as the May 18 deadline approaches.
What are traders watching for?
Bitcoin price movement through May 17, 2026 11:59 PM UTC determines final YES/NO resolution
Major macro economic data releases or Federal Reserve communications could trigger sharp price reactions
On-chain metrics and whale trading activity indicate current seller dominance at $94,000 target level
Resolution determined by highest price across Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and other major exchanges
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Bitcoin reaches $94,000 at any point between May 11, 2026 00:00 UTC and May 17, 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Resolution determined by highest price recorded on major cryptocurrency exchanges by May 18, 2026 00:00 UTC.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
