The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to recognize individuals or organizations that have made outstanding contributions to peace and conflict resolution efforts. The 2026 award will be announced in October, making this prediction market fully resolvable by the end date. Donald Trump has received previous nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize and remains under consideration for the 2026 award. Current market odds of 7% for a Trump win reflect trader assessment that this outcome is unlikely when compared to other potential recipients and historical patterns. The Nobel Committee's selection process considers factors such as peace advocacy, diplomatic initiatives, and humanitarian contributions to global stability. Historical selection data shows the committee has traditionally rewarded international diplomacy and conflict resolution leadership. This prediction market enables traders to express their view on the probability of Trump winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize against the current market odds. Final resolution occurs when the Norwegian Nobel Committee officially announces the 2026 laureate in October, providing a definitive outcome for all open positions.