This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 100 and 119 tweets during the week of May 15–22, 2026, making it objectively resolvable through his public Twitter/X timeline. The question targets a specific weekly tweet count, which represents approximately 14–17 tweets per day—a moderately active posting cadence for Elon. At only 5% YES odds, traders express strong skepticism that Elon will maintain this mid-range posting frequency for the entire seven-day period. His actual tweet volume has fluctuated considerably in recent months, sometimes dipping below 20 tweets daily while other weeks see substantially higher activity depending on news cycles, market movements, and his personal focus. The current odds distribution suggests traders expect either lower weekly totals (under 100 tweets) or potential higher bursts (120+ tweets) rather than settling squarely in this 100–119 band. The low probability assigned to this specific range reflects the difficulty of precisely predicting his social media behavior. Resolution is straightforward and verifiable through public Twitter API data, making this a pure data-driven prediction about Elon's social engagement during a specific week.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's relationship with Twitter—now rebranded as X—has evolved significantly since his acquisition in October 2022, establishing him as one of the platform's most prolific high-profile users. He leverages X as his primary channel for announcements, commentary, and direct engagement with tens of millions of followers, roles reflecting his positions as CEO of Tesla, leader of SpaceX, owner of X, and occasional cultural commentator. His weekly tweet counts vary substantially based on external catalysts and immediate priorities. During periods of major Tesla earnings announcements, SpaceX launches, or significant market turbulence, his activity spikes noticeably—sometimes exceeding 25 tweets daily. Conversely, weeks focused on operational execution or reduced media engagement see substantially lower counts, sometimes falling below 50 tweets total. The 100–119 tweet range represents approximately 14–17 daily posts, a moderately high baseline that Elon has occasionally achieved during particularly eventful weeks, though it remains far from his standard behavior pattern. The current 5% YES odds reflect widespread trader consensus that hitting this specific 20-tweet band is unlikely during the May 15–22 window. Several concrete factors could push outcomes toward YES: a major Tesla quarterly earnings announcement, SpaceX launch or test flight activity, significant market volatility prompting his commentary, X platform policy announcements requiring his direct involvement, or geopolitical developments he typically addresses publicly. Conversely, multiple dynamics could suppress tweet volume below 100. Elon's attention is perpetually divided across multiple companies and projects, and operational demands frequently reduce his social media engagement. The May 15–22 period falls outside known major seasonal catalysts for Tesla or SpaceX, further reducing natural incentives for elevated posting. His posting behavior also exhibits sporadic breaks and irregular patterns without discernible rhythm, making precise forecasting inherently difficult. The 5% odds implicitly signal that achieving 14–17 daily tweets is an exceptionally ambitious target—traders assess the probability distribution as skewed toward either lower weekly totals (under 100 tweets) or occasional higher bursts (120+ tweets) rather than settling in this middle band. This pricing reflects the fundamental challenge in forecasting his attention allocation across competing projects and his unpredictable engagement patterns.
What are traders watching for?
Tesla earnings reports or SpaceX launch activity during May 15–22 could boost Elon's tweet frequency significantly beyond baseline levels.
X platform announcements or major policy decisions requiring Elon's direct involvement typically trigger elevated social media engagement.
Market volatility or geopolitical events that historically prompt Elon commentary could shift tweet volume upward during this period.
Absence of major announcements or scheduled launches may keep weekly tweet count below the 100–119 range.
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves on May 22, 2026 by counting Elon Musk's public tweets from May 15 through May 21 (end of day). Verification uses official Twitter/X API data to determine if the final count falls within the 100–119 range (YES) or outside it (NO).
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
