This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post exactly 140 to 164 tweets across the three-day window from May 16 through May 18, 2026. The resolution date is May 18 at midnight UTC, and the criterion is straightforward: a manual count of verified tweets posted by @elonmusk during that specific period will determine the outcome. At current odds of 1% for YES, traders are expressing very high confidence that this event will not occur—meaning they expect Musk's posting volume to fall significantly below 140 tweets total on average across the three days, or to exceed 164. This low conviction in the 140-164 range reflects what many market participants view as an unlikely concentration of activity for any three-day span. Historically, Musk's tweet volume fluctuates widely depending on news cycles, market volatility, and his company-related announcements, ranging from single-digit daily posts during quiet periods to dozens or hundreds during major events. The narrow band specified here makes hitting that exact range a low-probability event.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's social media presence has become a significant market-moving force across financial and technology sectors. His account, @elonmusk, serves as a primary communication channel for announcements related to Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company, and his other ventures, alongside personal commentary on broader topics. The 140-164 tweet window in this market represents a specific, quantifiable threshold that forces traders to predict not just whether Musk will be active, but whether his activity will fall within a particularly narrow band. Several factors could push the market toward YES. Major corporate announcements from Tesla or SpaceX—earnings reports, product launches, or regulatory developments—often trigger extended posting sprees from Musk. If significant news were to break during this May 16-18 window, his tweet frequency could spike substantially. Similarly, any major market disruption, particularly in technology or cryptocurrency sectors where Musk maintains active engagement, could drive increased commentary. Conversely, multiple factors make the NO outcome more probable, which is reflected in the 1% YES odds. Musk's recent tweet patterns show considerable variability; he often goes through quiet periods of just a few posts per day, sometimes fewer than one per 24 hours. Hitting exactly 140-164 tweets across three days requires sustained high engagement of roughly 47-55 tweets per day—a rate that would place him in his more prolific ranges. For most three-day windows, his activity settles below this threshold. Historical data on Musk's posting patterns offers useful context. During periods of company calm, his daily tweet count frequently dips into single or double digits. However, during market turbulence or major announcements, he has posted more than 100 tweets in a single day, suggesting high volatility around any specific multi-day window. The tight band of 140-164 tweets introduces a mathematical challenge: the window must contain enough activity to exceed 46-47 tweets per day on average, but not so much that it spills into the 165+ range. Both extremes are plausible, but hitting the exact band is harder than overshooting or undershooting. The current 1% YES odds suggest traders believe the probability of this specific outcome is quite low, effectively pricing the 140-164 range as a miss in at least 99% of scenarios. This reflects both the inherent volatility in Musk's posting behavior and the mathematical tightness of the specified window. Traders may be factoring in that May 16-18 is a mid-week period without obvious scheduled catalysts, which could suppress posting volume compared to periods surrounding major news events.
What are traders watching for?
May 16-18, 2026: Three-day window for counting Elon Musk's tweets; market resolves at midnight UTC on May 18.
Tesla or SpaceX announcements during the window could trigger sustained high-volume posting; monitor company calendars for earnings or launches.
Musk's baseline posting range shows high variability, historically ranging from single digits to 100+ tweets daily depending on news.
Final count must fall between 140-164 tweets exactly; any count above 164 or below 140 results in NO resolution.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 18, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on a manual count of tweets posted by @elonmusk between May 16 and May 18, 2026. YES wins if the total count falls between 140 and 164 inclusive; otherwise NO wins.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
