Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored enterprise that operates in the mortgage market, has been in federal conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis. Any future initial public offering would represent a significant milestone in the company's restructuring. This market tracks whether Fannie Mae's market capitalization will reach $400 billion or greater at the close of trading on its official IPO day. With current odds at 2%, traders are pricing this valuation threshold as unlikely. Such a market cap would imply a specific enterprise value relative to Fannie Mae's mortgage portfolio and expected earnings power. The mortgage finance market remains highly regulated, and any public offering would require regulatory approval. Resolution will occur on the official IPO day's closing bell, determined by publicly available market capitalization calculated from share price times fully diluted shares outstanding. Market conditions, investor appetite, interest rate expectations, and macroeconomic factors will all influence opening and closing prices. The market remains open through June 30, 2026.