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This prediction market tests whether May 2026 will see a global temperature increase exceeding 1.29°C—a threshold roughly aligned with near-term climate acceleration scenarios and intermediate warming pathways. The market resolves on June 10, 2026, using verifiable global temperature data from authoritative sources such as NASA GISS, NOAA, or equivalent institutions. The current YES odds of just 1% indicate that traders heavily favor a scenario where May's global temperature rise stays substantially below this critical level. This extraordinarily low conviction reflects the market's underlying assessment that monthly temperature anomalies of this magnitude (>1.29°C) are rare statistical outliers, occurring only under specific climate forcing conditions. The odds trajectory suggests that May 2026's approaching temperature readings will be the primary catalyst driving market repricing; if early forecasts or preliminary data indicate warmer-than-expected conditions, odds could shift upward sharply. Conversely, normal or cooler-than-average conditions will likely keep the market pinned near current depressed lows. This market provides a quantifiable hedge for climate-conscious traders and offers a data-driven view of near-term global temperature expectations.
What factors could move this market?
Global temperature measurement and climate projections have become increasingly central to financial and geopolitical decision-making. The threshold of 1.29°C represents a meaningful marker within climate science discourse—it aligns with certain emissions-pathway models and sits between the Paris Agreement's stated 1.5°C target and broader warming trajectories observed in the 21st century. May 2026 is only months away, making this market's resolution dependent on near-term atmospheric patterns, ocean conditions, and solar forcing rather than long-term climate trends. Factors that could push the market toward YES (higher odds) include: (1) A strong El Niño or warm ocean phase persisting into May 2026, which can elevate global sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric heating; (2) Reduced volcanic cooling effects—volcanic aerosols temporarily suppress global temperatures, and their absence could allow warming to express more fully; (3) Unusually low atmospheric aerosol concentrations from human or natural sources; (4) Acceleration of arctic ice melt, releasing trapped heat into the atmosphere. Factors favoring NO include: (1) Transition toward a cooler climate phase (La Niña) by late 2025 or early 2026; (2) Volcanic eruptions or increased stratospheric aerosols, which scatter incoming solar radiation and create a cooling signal; (3) Normal seasonal cooling patterns in the Northern Hemisphere spring; (4) Delayed peak warming if 2025-2026 sees lower solar activity than expected. Historically, monthly global temperature anomalies exceeding 1.29°C are rare but not unprecedented. Notable El Niño years (1998, 2016) produced individual months with anomalies in the 0.8–1.1°C range, and some historical months have approached or exceeded 1.3°C. However, these outlier months typically occur during peak El Niño or post-volcanic winter periods. The current market odds (1% YES) reflect trader consensus that May 2026 is unlikely to represent such an extreme month unless unexpected climate forcing occurs. The bid-ask spread and limited liquidity—$5,230 total with only $615 in 24-hour volume—suggest this is a specialized niche market with minimal speculative interest. Traders pricing YES at 1% are implicitly forecasting May 2026 conditions to remain within approximately 1.0°C anomaly or lower, contingent on moderate ocean temperatures and typical seasonal patterns. If preliminary May temperature reports (typically released mid-to-late month) show accelerating warming or anomalies approaching the 1.3°C threshold, the market could experience sharp repricing. Conversely, confirmed moderate or cool conditions will likely sustain the currently depressed odds.
What are traders watching for?
El Niño/La Niña index trends through May 2026; NOAA forecasts confirm ocean phase dominance of global warming signal.
May global temperature anomaly preliminary data release mid-June 2026 via NASA GISS, NOAA; direct threshold marker.
Volcanic eruptions April-May 2026 or stratospheric aerosol changes; cooling effects could suppress monthly anomaly significantly.
Arctic ice extent, polar amplification spring signals May 2026; albedo feedback impacts northern hemisphere temperature.
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves on June 10, 2026, using official global temperature anomaly measurements from authoritative sources such as NASA GISS or NOAA. YES wins if May 2026 records a global temperature increase exceeding 1.29°C; otherwise, NO wins.
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