This market asks whether former FBI Director James Comey will leave the United States before May 15, 2026—now just twelve days away. Comey headed the FBI from 2013 to 2017 and was fired by President Trump in May 2017. Since then, he has remained in the US, publishing books, speaking publicly, and occasionally commenting on political developments. The current market price at 0% odds indicates traders consider a departure by mid-May nearly impossible. The resolution criteria require Comey to physically leave the country and remain outside the US through the deadline. With the resolution date this close and no public indication of departure plans, the zero odds align with observed reality and available evidence.
Deep dive — what moves this market
James Comey's public career and trajectory help explain the market's decisive 0% odds with twelve days remaining until resolution. Comey served as FBI Director from 2013 to 2017, overseeing major investigations including the Hillary Clinton email matter and Russian interference in the 2016 election. His firing by President Trump in May 2017 created high-profile conflict that dominated media coverage for months. Yet in the nine years since his termination, Comey has maintained a substantial presence in the United States. He has authored two books—"A Higher Loyalty" and "Saving Justice"—made speaking engagements, served as legal advisor, and provided commentary on political and legal developments. His media appearances remain frequent and visible. The market's interpretation of "leaving the country" would require Comey to physically depart the United States and remain outside its borders through May 15, 2026. With only twelve days until resolution, any such departure would need to occur immediately and be either publicly announced or credibly reported by major news outlets. Comey has given no indication of departure plans. No credible reporting suggests legal jeopardy requiring immediate flight. He faces no outstanding arrest warrants or extradition threats necessitating departure. Traders pricing this market at 0% express near-absolute confidence that none of these conditions will materialize over the next twelve days. The extremely tight timeframe makes low odds rational: absent an immediate, grave legal crisis or unexpected announcement, physical departure becomes logistically and politically implausible. His high public profile means any departure would almost certainly be publicly visible before the deadline. The market thus encodes collective trader conviction that barring unforeseen extraordinary developments, James Comey will remain in the United States through May 15, 2026.
What traders watch for
May 15 resolution deadline: any departure after this date resolves the market NO regardless of announcement
Any credible report of Comey leaving the country or formal departure announcement in the next twelve days
Sudden legal developments such as indictment or arrest warrant that could trigger immediate departure
Comey's public statements or verified travel announcements indicating intent to leave the United States
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if James Comey physically leaves the United States and remains outside the country through May 15, 2026. NO if he remains in the US through the deadline.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
