Connect wallet to trade · No wallet? Passkey login available · Free alerts at /subscribe
Karolína Plíšková, the Czech tennis star who once ranked No. 1 in the world, has been a consistent fixture on the WTA Tour for over a decade. She reached the French Open final in 2017, her best Grand Slam performance at any major championship. Now in her mid-thirties, her ranking and tournament results have steadily declined from her peak competitive years. The 2026 French Open takes place May 24–June 6 at Roland Garros in Paris, one of professional tennis's four major championships. The market assigns just 1% odds to Plíšková winning the tournament, reflecting low conviction among traders that she'll capture the title. This price implies the market views her chances as remote given her current form and the depth of the women's field at Roland Garros. Recent WTA rankings would need to improve significantly for Plíšková to be considered a contender, and her history on clay, while solid, hasn't produced multiple Grand Slam wins. The modest 1% probability sits at the extreme low end of the odds distribution, suggesting traders believe many other players pose far greater threats to claim the championship.
What factors could move this market?
Karolína Plíšková turned professional in 2003 and has been a consistent WTA presence for nearly two decades. Her peak came in 2017 when she reached a career-high No. 1 ranking and made the French Open final, losing to Jeléna Ostapenko in straight sets. That run to the final represented her best performance at a Grand Slam, demonstrating she possesses the skills to compete deep into major tournaments on clay. However, the years since have seen her ranking decline as younger players have emerged and her physical capability to sustain long runs has diminished. By 2026, at 34 years old, Plíšková faces the typical challenges of a veteran player on the professional tennis circuit. For the market to resolve YES, Plíšková would need to exceed current expectations significantly. She would require a surge in recent form, sustained consistency through the qualifying rounds and main draw, favorable matchups, and the absence of injury during the tournament. Clay courts, while always suiting her game to some degree, require specific preparation and conditioning that becomes harder to maintain as players age. A string of positive results in warm-up tournaments leading into Roland Garros could shift the market narrative, but her recent track record suggests limited probability of such a turnaround. The overwhelming likelihood of a NO resolution reflects the depth of the women's tennis field in 2026. Players like Iga Świątek, who has dominated on clay, along with rising French players and younger American and Asian competitors, will likely command more attention and higher seed positions. The French Open typically features 128 competitors, and many will be ranked higher, seeded better, and considered more dangerous. Historical precedent matters: players in their mid-thirties rarely win Grand Slam titles unless they are still performing at an elite level, which Plíšková's likely ranking no longer reflects. The 1% market price sits far below even a long-shot perception. It implies traders view this outcome as roughly a 100-to-1 proposition, with other competitors vastly more probable to claim the title. This extremely low odds level might attract contrarian traders seeking maximum payoff potential, yet the historical record suggests such deep odds are rarely realized in professional tennis. The modest trading volume on this market indicates limited speculative interest, possibly because the outcome seems too unlikely to generate sustained attention. For traders focused on realistic probabilities, capital would flow to markets featuring multiple players with genuine contention windows rather than to the extreme tail of the distribution.
What are traders watching for?
Roland Garros qualifying rounds and first-round seeding draw released by late April; Plíšková's placement determines path difficulty.
Warm-up clay tournament results May 1–23 will signal her pre-French Open form and tournament readiness.
Injury status and player withdrawals in the main draw could create unexpected opportunities or obstacles.
Head-to-head records against seeded players in Round 1 matchup; any upset would need to extend through multiple rounds.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Karolína Plíšková wins the 2026 Women's French Open championship at Roland Garros (ending June 6, 2026). Resolves NO if any other player wins the tournament.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
