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Maryam Rajavi is the president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), an opposition group recognized internationally but banned by Tehran. The current YES odds of 1% reflect extremely low probability that she would become Iran's head of state by end of 2026. Iran's political system is complex; the supreme leader holds executive power above the elected president, and both offices are embedded within a rigid institutional structure. For Rajavi to become head of state, a dramatic political shift—either through regime collapse, armed conflict, revolution, or comprehensive multilateral negotiation—would be required within the next seven months. The current price implies markets assign near-zero probability to such a transition. This reflects assessments of Iran's institutional stability despite significant internal tensions, economic pressures, and regional conflicts. The extremely low odds suggest traders view the current regime structure as highly resistant to the kind of systemic change that would place an opposition leader in power. Resolution hinges on who occupies Iran's highest executive office on December 31, 2026, regardless of formal title or mechanism of arrival.
What factors could move this market?
Maryam Rajavi has led the NCRI, an Iranian opposition movement, since 1993. The NCRI operates as a shadow government-in-exile, with Rajavi holding the ceremonial title of president-elect since 2015. Historically, Iran's government has been resilient to external pressure and internal opposition for over four decades since the 1979 Revolution. The current political structure features a supreme leader (Ayatollah Khamenei, age 87) who holds ultimate executive authority, alongside an elected president (currently Masoud Pezeshkian following the May 2024 death of Ebrahim Raisi). For Rajavi to become head of state by year-end 2026, several scenarios would theoretically be possible: complete regime collapse through internal revolution, external military intervention resulting in state restructuring, or an unprecedented negotiated settlement installing an NCRI representative in executive power. None of these pathways appear probable in the near term. Factors supporting a YES outcome center on potential geopolitical escalation. A major armed conflict involving Iran could destabilize the regime or create conditions for foreign-backed transitional governance. Internal discontent over economic hardship, human rights concerns, and nuclear-related sanctions generates ongoing friction, though organized opposition within Iran remains suppressed. Large-scale exile networks exist and some international actors maintain diplomatic channels with opposition groups. Historical precedents for rapid regime change exist (Iran 1979, Afghanistan 2021), but modern Iran's military and security apparatus are vastly stronger. Factors supporting NO are far more dominant. Iran's institutional structures—the Supreme Leader's council, Revolutionary Guards, judiciary, and security apparatus—have consolidated power over 45 years and demonstrated capacity to suppress internal challenges. The NCRI's power base is primarily abroad; domestically it has limited grassroots organization compared to state authorities. The current president represents a centrist faction within the regime but remains committed to the Islamic Republic's core structure. Regional military dynamics would need to shift dramatically to enable such a transition. The 1% odds reflect trader consensus that regime change installing Rajavi is extremely unlikely within seven months. This pricing implies confidence in Iran's institutional stability, military strength, and geopolitical entrenchment through 2026. It also reflects that Rajavi lacks a visible domestic power base needed to transition into state power through conventional political means. Black swan events remain theoretically possible but are assigned negligible cumulative probability by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
What are traders watching for?
Any major political transitions in Iran's supreme leadership structure or presidential office involving regime succession
Escalation of regional military conflicts directly involving Iran, including warfare or major external military intervention
Formal diplomatic recognition or negotiations between international actors and the NCRI or other Iranian opposition
Large-scale domestic unrest, security incidents, or popular mobilization directly challenging Iranian regime authority and stability
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Maryam Rajavi is the recognized head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. It resolves NO if any other individual holds that office or if Iran's government structure prevents clear determination of a head of state.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
